Political Speculators Looking Into the Crystal Ball

Another election year. More rampant speculation in the capital city.

While the dust settled on the nasty state Supreme Court race in Spring 2008, the energy among state operatives shifted to the fall elections that will determine partisan control of the state Senate and Assembly, whether Democrat Steve Kagen of Appleton will remain the U.S. representative for the Green Bay area 8th Congressional District, and whether Wisconsin Republicans can break a presidential losing streak stretching back to 1988.

No race for governor or attorney general. Little real competition in the other congressional races. No U.S. Senate race as Herb Kohl and Russ Feingold are firmly and safely in the middle of their six-year terms.

So the big race in the fall of 2008 is the presidential contest. The speculation centered in mid-April on how it would affect those legislative races down the ballot, and perhaps how it would affect the statehouse's most powerful politician, Governor Jim Doyle. On the minds of many insiders: If Barack Obama wins the presidency, will Doyle follow in the footsteps of Democrat Patrick Lucey (1977) and Republican Tommy Thompson (2001)—getting offered, and taking, a job in the new administration, shaking up the status quo?

Go with me on this flight of fancy into the future, courtesy of the political whisperers in Madison.

These 2008 election scenarios, I remind you, were conceived before the finale of the Democratic presidential contest in this ever-surprising political year and prior to final approval of a compromise on how to fill a projected $500 million budget hole. The scenarios, however, do take into account insider thinking after conservative Michael Gableman upset Supreme Court Justice Louis Butler to tilt the state's high court to the right and after Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker cruised to reelection over state Senator Lena Taylor (D-Milwaukee) to become the insiders' choice as the frontrunner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2010.

Status Quo

Currently, the statehouse features a Democratic governor in his second term, a Democratic-run Senate (18-15 in favor of the Ds) and a Republican-controlled Assembly (52-47 in favor of the Rs). The current split Legislature has had relatively low production numbers in terms of bills proposed and passed, and in its first year went into a months-long overtime to craft a budget plan that now is being revised because a slowing economy is projected to drag down tax collections. But it did pass bipartisan bills ratifying the Great Lakes water compact and keeping virtual schools in business.

Despite sky-high “wrong-track” polling numbers and high gas prices (things that usually endanger incumbents), the 2008 fall elections may result in no significant change in the state Capitol, say some insiders. They theorize that the presidential race in Wisconsin will be close, thanks to John McCain, and that voters motivated by “change” will voice their displeasure in the presidential contest and then stick to Wisconsin tradition, split their tickets, and vote down ballot for familiar Assembly Republicans and their familiar no-tax-increase stance molded by Assembly Speaker Mike Huebsch. They also speculate Senate Democrats under Majority Leader Russ Decker will reelect their incumbents and perhaps upset longtime Milwaukee-area Senator Alberta Darling to keep the majority.

Democrats Sweep the Legislature.

If 2006 was the reverse of 1994's Newt Gingrich-led revolution that gave Republicans complete control of the statehouse, why not a continuation of the trend in 2008? After all, say Democrats, the only thing that's really changed from 2006 is the recession. Why won't Republicans get blamed for that and the war?

Democratic spin masters are counting on 2006-like turnout from Democratic-leaning independents, high turnout on college campuses, Democratic trends in the Mississippi River Valley (could that, and the work of upset-minded Democratic strategists, upset Huebsch?), and a campaign against a “do-nothing” Assembly to lift the Ds to the majority for the first time in more than a decade.

If Democrats do make it back into the majority, they will have a new leader, as Assembly Minority Leader Jim Kreuser was the odds-on favorite to be the new Kenosha County executive. Unopposed in the special election race to succeed the disgraced Allan Kehl who made a plea deal with federal prosecutors in the Troha affair, Kreuser in the spring handed over control of the elections to a team of colleagues, some of whom may be in line to succeed him. One of the names often mentioned is Janesville Democrat Mike Sheridan, a former UAW leader.

Doyle also is seen as helping Assembly Democrats. He's had a much closer relationship with them than Senate Democrats who have sought their own path on health care and other issues, especially since Decker took over for Judy Robson in a coup late in 2007.

But insiders wonder if the centrist Doyle really wants full Democratic control of the Legislature. Under the current framework, he can blame the Legislature for things undone or for getting out of line. But if members of his own party are in control, he might be in the uncomfortable position of dealing with liberal legislation he'd rather stay buried in a Republican Assembly committee.

And Republicans say they’re on the upswing after an awful 2006 with good candidates and a good message. If McCain performs well, the GOP majority may even grow, say some of the hopeful Republicans. They’ll be aided by big business interests, which were making holding the Assembly a priority as of Spring 2008.

Republicans Sweep the Legislature.

Few insiders are spinning this web, considering the 2006 election results and generally favorable polling for Democrats this year.

But GOP loyalists who saw conservatives rally in the 2008 spring elections remind listeners that President Bush isn't on the ballot and say independents may lean Republicans' way if McCain keeps the race close by attracting the political middle, the Iraq war gets off the front pages and the top of the newscasts, and the economy begins a turnaround.

The problem may be motivation for the Republican base given McCain's much-publicized positions on some key issues like immigration and campaign finance reform that put him at odds with the right. But if Clinton became the Democratic nominee, that would be motivation enough, say many Republicans.

Obama Wins, Doyle Goes, Barrett Goes and . . .

Will Doyle stay or will he go? Doyle formally endorsed Obama right after the Illinois senator won the Iowa Democratic caucus and campaigned enthusiastically for him in advance of his big Wisconsin win and then in North Carolina. Insiders appeared split on whether Doyle prefers to run for reelection to a third term in 2010 or exit a job that appears to sometimes irritate him. But at the least, insiders suggested, he wants to get an offer.

What could the offer be? Speculation ranges from U.S. attorney general (he was Wisconsin attorney general in the 1990s) to ambassador (joining Wisconsinites who recently served abroad—former Democratic Assembly Speaker Tom Loftus in Norway, Milwaukee attorney and former state GOP Chair Rick Graber in the Czech Republic, and former Green Bay-area Congressman and Republican governor candidate Mark Green to Tanzania), to a federal judgeship in Madison (his father was a federal judge and the job would require no more campaigns).

One thing holding him back, say some, is his desire to turn the state over to a loyalist. Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton, a Clinton supporter, wasn't Doyle's first choice as a running mate back in 2002, and their relationship is said to lack conviction. He wanted Kevin Shibilski, but the state senator from central Wisconsin lost in the lieutenant governor primary and then went on for a short stint as Doyle's first Tourism secretary. Some suggest Doyle would try mightily to get Lawton a top Obama administration appointment, work to install his preferred successor and then take his own appointment. Quite the feat, but great fodder for capital city speculation.

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett was at the vanguard of Obama's Wisconsin campaign, and his early endorsement could also win him a federal job offer, say some Milwaukee insiders. But Barrett just won reelection, he already served in Washington as a congressman and it's not the right time to uproot a family. But if the right offer came along . . . .

That's why some Milwaukee politicos see City Council President Willie Hines making more moves to prepare for the “what if” proposition and get into position to become the city's first elected African-American mayor and second black mayor after Marvin Pratt.

Clinton Wins, Lawton Goes

Conversely, if Clinton wins the White House, some see a federal job offer going to Lawton. If she left, that would pave the way for a Doyle loyalist for the No. 2 slot. Doyle, even if he worked to help Clinton win Wisconsin after she won the nomination, would seem an unlikely favorite of a new Clinton administration given his strong support for Obama. Some insiders, however, speculate that a Clinton victory also would garner a federal job offer for Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, a two-time loser in her bids for statewide office (governor in 2002 and attorney general in 2006). 

McCain Wins, Ryan to Budget Director

U.S. Representative Paul Ryan, R-Janesville, has only been in Congress since 1999, but he's already a conservative darling for his work against earmarks and for tax cuts. Ryan was mentioned as a long shot possibility to be McCain's running mate given his youth and his Midwestern base.

Others are speculating that if Ryan helps McCain win his southeastern Wisconsin 1st Congressional District, what's to say Ryan wouldn't be on a list to be budget director? Ryan's budget acumen and congressional ties might be an asset, some say. Still others say Ryan wants to run for U.S. Senate when Herb Kohl retires or stay in the House and be speaker some day, so he’ll stay where he is.

What will the 2008 election results mean for 2010? May the speculation begin!

If Clinton or McCain wins, insiders look for Doyle to remain and run again—with or without Lawton. And then it will be up to Republicans to again try to challenge him.

Walker, after his spring 2008 reelection, appeared poised for another statewide run. After all, he had run in the GOP primary in 2006, only to drop out in favor of Green. And Walker pointedly avoided committing to filling out a full four-year term during his county executive reelection run. In addition, Democrats' hopes that Taylor would at least bloody Walker went unfulfilled.

State Senator Ted Kanavas, R-Brookfield, pulled out as a potential candidate after Walker's win, giving him the nod as the front-runner. Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen has said he's aiming for reelection. That leaves other potential GOP candidates like Graber, Huebsch and Senate Minority Leader Scott Fitzgerald.

Insiders as of April 2008 weren't giving Republicans much of a chance of regaining the governor's office in 2010, but conditions change. And when they do, so will the speculation.

 

Jeff Mayers is president of WisPolitics.com and WisBusiness.com, online news services based in Madison.